NFL player props · 2023–2026
Find the edge.
Or know there isn’t one.
Methodology-honest research for serious bettors: the engine’s own probability distributions, market context, and historical hit rates, with the sample sizes and limitations attached. Research, not picks.
Our model doesn’t beat the closing line. We’re the only prop tool that will tell you that, and show you the calibration to prove we’re honest about it.
Receiving Yards · vs BUF · 2024 wk 14
P(≥ 0.0) = 0.0%
Barely measured: 30 settled outcomes below 20%. Treat as unverified.
The engine's probability that Cooper Kupp finishes at or above any line. Drag it, or use ← →. Tap ⛶ for the full view.
A real curve from the browser, not marketing art. Explore it live →
How it works
01
Pick a player
Every projectable QB, RB, WR and TE, hundreds a season across 32 teams, 2023 through 2026. Every curve is a 25,000-simulation Monte Carlo run of that week's game.
02
Read the distribution
Not a single number, the whole probability curve. Drag the cursor to any line and read P(result ≥ line) straight off the engine's own output.
03
Check our work
The engine's validation findings are published on this site, including the tests it failed. Sample sizes and limitations ship with every number.
What makes this different
No picks, ever
No plays, no leans, no units, no edge scores. It's a written commitment, not a current stance. We publish it so you can hold us to it.
Read the charter →The whole distribution, not one number
A projection of 62.5 yards hides more than it tells you. Drag the cursor to any line and read the engine's probability at that exact number.
Open the browser →Public calibration
Where the model is well calibrated and where it's measurably off, including the buckets that make us look bad. Permanent page, not a footnote.
See the record →What we
don’t do.
No picks
We never tell you what to play.
No edge claims
Our own validation found no reliable edge vs closing lines, and we published that.
No fake win rates
No cherry-picked records, no locks, no touts.
Founding member
$4.99/mo · locked for life
First 100 members. 14-day free trial, cancel anytime.