Methodology

Vektor Labs is built on a model that was rigorously validated — and whose commercial edge was honestly rejected. The engine has real predictive signal (Brier resolution above random) but no reliable edge against market closing lines. We show you what the model and market say; we do not claim to beat the market.

What you see

• Historical: hit rate, average, splits over your lookback window (20-snap minimum per game).
• Market: line movement, best price, no-vig probability vs the historical hit rate.
• Model: the calibrated probability (the raw model over-confidently overshoots), beside the historical hit rate at that calibration bucket and its sample size. Suppressed when the bucket has fewer than 30 samples.

Why model–market gaps don't predict winners

A large gap between the model and the market is context, not a signal. Our own validation found the one subset with positive closing-line value was a favorite price-drift artifact whose CLV did not track realized results, with every ROI confidence interval spanning zero. The market closing line already prices in what the model knows. We surface the gap so you can see where they disagree — not because disagreement predicts outcomes.

The full validation case study is public in the engine repository.